Hurricane Dorian update for Saturday 8/31, 1:20 p.m.

**Hurricane Dorian Update for Saturday (8/31) at 1:20 p.m.**

Storm FAQ:

The UF campus in Gainesville is on a normal schedule this weekend and a normal holiday schedule on Monday. Classes are canceled and offices closed on Tuesday.

UF units with operations outside of Gainesville should follow the closures and guidance of their local governments.

All UF units in the peninsula should continue to closely monitor the progress of Dorian even with the recent, positive forecast changes. Much of the peninsula remains within the forecast error cone.

At the 11 a.m. advisory, Dorian was located approximately 415 miles east of West Palm Beach, Florida, with maximum sustained winds of 150mph (Category 4).

On the forecasted track, the core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and central Bahamas today, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and move near the Florida east coast late Monday through Tuesday.

The current forecast moves the center of Dorian east of the Florida coast on Monday through Wednesday as a major hurricane.

No watches or warning are currently in place for the Florida coast but tropical storm watches could be issued later today.

While a landfall in Florida is no longer forecasted, significant impacts remain possible, including hurricane-force winds along portions of the Florida east coast.

An estimated 4-8 inches of widespread rain is possible in association with Dorian, with higher amounts along the Florida east coast. Cumulative rainfall totals of 3-4 inches are possible in the Gainesville area based upon current forecasts.

As of the 11 a.m. advisory, Gainesville has a 46% of experiencing sustained tropical storm force winds and a 3% chance of hurricane force winds. Those percentages have been reducing over the last few advisories and may continue that trend.

If tropical storm force winds were to occur locally, the mostly likely arrival time remains on Tuesday.

Timing of the anticipated northward turn of Dorian on Monday/Tuesday, along with how far west the storm is located before the turn, will determine the exact impacts to the state.

Forecast track changes to the west will increase impacts and changes to the east will reduce currently forecasted impacts. The NHC track is west of most model guidance.

Updates will be posted daily unless circumstances warrant more frequent updates. 

Published: August 31st, 2019

Category: 2019 Weather Alerts